GREEK FINANCIAL MARKET

The General Index in Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) closed at 816.16, posting losses of 0.80%, in a turnover of €52.65mn.

The German Deputy Finance Minister Mr. Steffen Kampeter does not expect Germany will have to provide further aid to Greece for the foreseeable future, but added that no-one can rule it out should the world economy fundamentally worsen.

Moody’s thinks that Greek haircuts will be needed as debt levels will remain unsustainable despite the recent debt reduction plans.

The Social Democrats are advising their parliamentarians to vote in favour of the new package of financing measures for Greece in a Bundestag vote expected today. The party head Mr. Sigmar Gabriel said only eight party members indicated in a test vote that they would oppose the aid measures.

Economic Releases

Turnover Index in Retail Trade, September

Corporate Releases

PPC EGM

Corporate Impacts

• Greek Banks:There was no progress in the yesterday meeting between the Finance Minister Mr. Yannis Stournaras and the Hellenic Bank Association regarding the issues of the bond buyback plan and the sector’s recapitalization. Mr. Stournaras reiterated the need for the buyback plan to succeed and reminded bankers that such alternatives have already been rejected by the ECB and the EC.

Technical

FTSE 20 December future:

Support levels: 282-276-270. Resistance levels: 295-302-308.

GREEK FINANCIAL MARKET

The General Index in Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) closed at 822.72, posting losses of 2.87%, in a turnover of €62.32mn.

The finance minister Mr. Yannis Stournaras said that the international creditors have prepared a back up plan to tackle the crippling debt burden if a program to buyback and retire that debt fails to live up to expectations. The exact size of the loan has not been decided and would depend on the participation in the plan.

A senior finance ministry official told Reuters that Greece has hired Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley to conduct a voluntary buy back of its debt. He added that the average bond buyback price could between 28c – 30c, but it could be changed.

The Eurozone central banks may decide to roll over their holdings of Greek debt to reduce by €5.6bn the amount governments will need to provide Athens by 2016. Such a move would cut the amount to €2bn from €7.6bn (Reuters).

The Social Democrat party’s chief parliamentary whip Mr. Thomas Oppermann said that it is undecided on whether it will support new aid measures to help Greece when parliament votes on the matter. The German Parliamentary vote is scheduled for tomorrow.

According to the Financial Times, the Eurozone governments could be forced to accept losses on their rescue loans to Greece after Monday’s late-night deal to overhaul its bailout failed to agree how to reach new debt targets for the struggling country.

Corporate Impacts

• Greek Banks:The total deposits held by domestic residents and companies rose to €155.2bn in October from €154.3bn in September and €153.4bn in August. The net lending to Greek businesses and households in October shrank 4.8% on the year (BoG). In other news, Fitch said that the Greece’s agreement with the Eurogroup for the next aid disbursement, including €23.8bn of new capital for its banks should strengthen confidence in the fragile Greek banking sector, but questions remain about how the recapitalisation will be implemented.
• OPAP:The Board of Directors of the Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund announced that following the evaluation of the eight Expressions of Interest submitted for the sale of a 33% stake of OPAP, seven entities and consortia fulfil all criteria and will participate in the next stage of the tendering process: BC Partners, Emma Delta Ltd, Consortium of Gauselmann AG (55%), Playtech Ltd (41%) and Helvason Ltd (4%), Consortium of Intralot Holdings Luxemburg S.A. (34%) and Intralot Investments Ltd (66%), Primrose Treasure Limited subsidiary of Fosun international, Third Point LLC and TPG Capital.
• BoC:It posted a nine-month loss after tax of €211mn after including impairment in the value of Greek bonds held and on higher provisions for non-performing loans. Its capital shortfall to reach a core tier 1 ratio of 9% is €722mn. A protracted downturn in its two main markets, Cyprus and Greece, resulted in a significant deterioration of the bank’s loan portfolio, with the bank increasing provisions by 179% to €822mn compared to €295mn. Its NPL ratio rose to 17.1% at the end of September compared to 14.2% at the end of June.

Technical

FTSE 20 December future:

Support levels: 286-278-270. Resistance levels: 300-308-316.

GREEK FINANCIAL MARKET

The General Index in Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) closed at 847.06, posting profits of 0.29%, in a turnover of €92.24mn. The bank stocks recorded heavy losses, due to the Eurogroup decisions regarding the bond buyback process.

The German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that the eurozone partners will consider a further reduction to its debt if Greece meets its target of achieving a significant primary surplus by 2016.

Τhe Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted in its economic outlook that the Greek economy will not recover before 2015, after seven consecutive years of recession. It expects the economy to shrink in 2014 by 1.3%, revising its earlier estimate for growth of 0.2%. The OECD sees public debt rising to 189% of GDP next year and to 195% in 2014 unless additional debt reduction measures are taken, from 177% in 2012. The budget deficit is expected to end up at 6.9% this year and drop to 4.6% in 2013.

The German Bundestag (lower house) will debate the Greek issue this week and vote on Friday to approve the agreement on reducing Greece’s debt burden. The Dutch parliament must also endorse the deal, but we dot not expect any problem. The French parliament will also have to approve the deal, but it will do so as part of a vote on the 2013 budget. In other euro zone countries, including Slovakia, which held up the first international bailout for Greece two years ago, no parliamentary vote is required on the package (Reuters).

Corporate Impacts

• PPC: The Company posted a 30% nine-month profit increase to €118.1mn from €90.8mn, as settlement of a financial dispute with Depa and lower staff costs helped to offset higher fuel expenses. The cost of liquid fuel, natural gas and energy purchases rose to €2.45bn from €1.7bn a year earlier. Sales increased 8.7% to €4.56bn. Mr. Zervos said that the company forecast is that 2012 EBITDA will be 17.5% to 18% of revenue, based on sales of €6bn and taking into account effects of prolonged recession and lack of cash.
• OPAP: According to Kathimerini, the Eurogroup deal reached on Greece’s funding and debt appears to have prompted the state privatization fund (TAIPED) to pick up the pace, as its board will today draft the short list of participants in the sale process for a 33 percent stake in gaming company OPAP. Sources suggest that all eight companies and consortiums that have expressed an interest in the process are expected to be short-listed for the second round, which concerns the submission of binding offers.

Technical

FTSE 20 December future:

Support levels: 292-286-280. Resistance levels: 310-316-322.

GREEK FINANCIAL MARKET

The General Index in Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) closed at 844.80, posting marginal losses of 0.06%, in a turnover of €36.28mn.

The Eurozone finance ministers agreed on a formula to reduce Greek debt to 124% of GDP by 2020. The agreement means that Greece will receive €34.4bn by the end of the year – €23.8bn is to complete the recapitalization of Greek banks – but the remainder of the bailout loans (€9.3bn) it was expecting next month will be paid in three tranches at the beginning of next year. The ministers agreed to cut the interest rate on official loans, extend their maturity by 15 years to 30 years and grant Athens a 10-year interest repayment deferral. They promised to hand back €11bn in profits accruing to their national central banks from ECB purchases of discounted Greek government bonds in the secondary market. They also agreed to finance Greece to buy back its own bonds from private investors at what officials said was a target cost of around 35 cents in the euro.

The trade deficit for the first nine months fell 21.6% to €10.05bn. The imports fell 8.7% to €22.5bn, while exports rose by 5.3% to €12.45bn.

Corporate Releases

PPC:Q3’12 results (before-market) Est.: Profits: €35.4mn, EBITDA: 276.10mn and Sales: €1.621bn,
Fourlis Q3’12 results (after-market).

Corporate Impacts

• Motor Oil:The profit fell 43% in the first nine months of 2012 to €81.8mn (est: €74.7mn) from €143.1mn in the same period a year ago, weighed down by falling crude prices and narrower refining margins. Excluding the oil inventories, the EBITDA fell 4.5% to €254.8mn million (est: €254.7mn).

Technical

FTSE 20 December future:

Support levels: 298-292-286. Resistance levels: 310-318-322.

GREEK FINANCIAL MARKET

The General Index in Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) closed at 854.04, posting marginal losses of 0.21%, in a turnover of €58.78mn.

The market will focus on the today Eurogroup meeting. The Eurozone finance ministers held a teleconference on Saturday to discuss about the Greek debt sustainability, but there was no official statement after the teleconference.

The German chancellor candidate Mr. Peer Steinbrueck warned that German taxpayers could get stuck with billions of Euros if Greece were to default on its loans.

Corporate Impacts

• NBG, Eurobank:The general meeting of NBG shareholders agreed on the issue of new shares to be given to Eurobank shareholders in the context of the public offering. The public offer for the share swap will be completed in the first few weeks of 2013, and the procedures of the legal merger will begin immediately afterward.
• Cypriot Banks:Fitch downgraded Bank of Cyprus’, Cyprus Popular Bank’s and Hellenic Bank’s IDR and SRF to ‘BB-‘ from ‘BB’ following the downgrade of Cyprus’ sovereign rating. The Outlooks on the banks’ long-term IDRs are negative in line with that of the sovereign. In other news, the government has made good progress with the troika on the bailout agreement, but there is no deal yet for Cyprus. At the same time, almost six out of 10 Greek Cypriots are in favour of a memorandum of understanding between Cyprus and troika (Kathimerini survey).

Technical

FTSE 20 December future:

Support levels: 298-292-286. Resistance levels: 310-318-322.